Extreme Software Estimation

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One of the most dominant and serious complaints arising from the continuing “software crisis” is the inability to estimate with acceptable accuracy the cost, resources, and schedule required for a software development. Traditional intuitive estimation methods have consistently produced optimistic results, which have contributed to the too familiar cost overrun and schedule slippage. Several methods of schedule and cost estimation have been proposed over the last 25 years with mixed results and partial success due, in part, to the focus and capability limitations of the traditional estimation models. A significant part of the estimation failures can be attributed to a lack of understanding of the inner workings of the software development process and the impact of that process on the parameters used in the schedule and cost estimates. One of the poorly understood variables is the impact of management on the development process. Poor management can increase software cost, schedule and quality more rapidly than any other aspect of the development process. The assumption that the software development enjoys good management by both the developer and the customer (1) allows the impact of management to be ignored in estimates, and (2) is simply wrong. This presentation describes a management-centric approach to the prediction of software development cost and schedule in a modern, or extreme, development environment as opposed to the traditional technology-based approaches. This presentation introduces techniques necessary to produce realistic, reliable software development estimates, as well as introducing software managers to quantitative methods for predicting the impacts of their management decisions.
 
Tuesday - April 29, 2003
3:50 - 4:30
Track 3
Ballroom C
 
Speakers:
Dr. Randall Jensen
Larry Smith
 
Presentation:
Extreme Software Estimation

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